How’s Indonesia COPing?

There is perhaps no greater reminder than the recent environmental shifts in Sumatra that the time to act against climate change isn't "eventually"—it is right now. But as the dust settles on the 30th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, we have to ask the hard question: Is Indonesia actually leading the charge, or are we just finding new ways to "cope" with a deepening crisis?

What is COP and Why Does it Matter Now?

For the uninitiated, COP is the annual global summit where nations gather to negotiate climate action and, crucially, climate financing. COP30 was positioned as a monumental space for countries to showcase their progress toward net-zero goals.

For Indonesia, the stakes couldn't be higher. We live in a paradox: we are a nation blessed with some of the world’s most abundant natural resources, yet we consistently sit among the top ten global greenhouse gas emitters as we fuel our economic growth. From droughts and fires to rising seas threatening millions of our coastal residents, Indonesia is highly vulnerable. To survive, we need to play an active role in shaping fair climate rules and securing the international cooperation necessary for a just decarbonization.

From Bali to Belém: The Eras Tour

Indonesia’s journey through the "COP Eras" shows a steady evolution of policy, even if the implementation remains a work in progress:

2007 (COP13, Bali): The adoption of the Bali Road Map, detailing the work needed for a secure energy future.
2015 (COP21, Paris): The debut of the Paris Agreement and our first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
2021 (COP26, Glasgow): Our "green growth" arc began in earnest, focusing on EVs, nickel industrialization, and the launch of the Forest and Other Land Uses (FoLU) Net Sink 2030.
2022-2024: From the launch of the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) at the G20 to promoting the carbon market in Azerbaijan, Indonesia has been positioning itself as a major player in climate finance.

Assessing the "Wins"

On paper, there are significant victories to celebrate. Indonesia recently submitted its second NDCs, increasing our unconditional emission reduction target from 29% to 31.89%.

We’ve also seen practical wins in energy and conservation:

AZEC (Asia Zero Emission Community): Indonesia is a co-initiator of this scheme, recently cooperating with Japan to build an 80-megawatt geothermal plant in West Sumatra.
REDD+ and Forestry: We’ve committed nearly USD 500 million to land-use emission reduction, successfully rehabilitating 2 million hectares of forest land and reducing forest fires by nearly 20%.

A Shifting International Status Quo

While Indonesia makes strides, the global landscape is becoming increasingly unpredictable. While the world finally hit the milestone of USD 100 billion a year to help developing countries, the geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting.

In January 2025, the United States left the Paris Agreement to pursue an "America First" strategy. This departure has left programs like the JETP—with USD 4 billion in investment commitments—feeling "lost in translation." Furthermore, a recent analysis suggests that current global NDCs still point toward a 3°C temperature rise, far exceeding the 1.5°C goal set in Paris.

COP30: Did We Cook or Get Cooked?

The results of COP30, encapsulated in the "Mutirão Decision," were a mixed bag. The summit secured a commitment to triple adaptation funding to USD 120 billion a year by 2035 and established the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF).

For Indonesia specifically, the mission in Belém was clear: sell the carbon market. Our pavilion recorded nearly Rp7 trillion (USD 406 million) in transactions. However, this financial success was met with sharp skepticism. Experts warn that carbon credits often don't represent real emission cuts, especially when Indonesia’s latest NDC lacks an explicit commitment to phasing out fossil fuels.

The most stinging critique? International activists awarded Indonesia the satirical "Fossil of the Day" award for overloading its delegation with fossil fuel lobbyists. While over 80 countries pledged to a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels, Indonesia was notably absent from that list.

The Reality Check

Despite the diplomatic "wins," domestic realities tell a more complicated story. Indonesia’s total emission projection is predicted to climb to 1,489 million tons of CO2e by 2035. Our energy policy remains deeply entangled with coal; as demand from China and India slows, the domestic industry is seeking political support for expansion at home.

The most glaring contradiction remains the National Financial Regulator (OJK) permitting the construction of captive coal power plants for downstreaming strategies—a move that directly opposes the climate integrity we projected in Belém.

What’s Next?

The road leads next to COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye, under the presidency of Australia. This transition is expected to bring a stronger focus on Pacific states and maritime interests, which aligns with Indonesia’s plan to strengthen international partnerships in Ocean and Climate.

Moving forward, future COPs will serve as the ultimate testbed for Indonesia. Are we a nation committed to global responsibility and the safety of our people, or are we simply "coping" by masking domestic coal expansion with sophisticated carbon trading? The world—and our environment—is watching.